Dr. John’s Wishful is a blog where stories, struggles, and hopes for a better nation come alive. It blends personal reflections with social commentary, turning everyday experiences into insights on democracy, unity, and integrity. More than critique, it is a voice of hope—reminding readers that words can inspire change, truth can challenge power, and dreams can guide Filipinos toward a future of justice and nationhood.

Tuesday, December 9, 2025

PROJECT NOAH, FLOOD RISK SCIENCE, AND THE POLITICS OF ACCOUNTABILITY: A Nation Seeking Its Ark

*Dr. Rodolfo John Ortiz Teope, PhD, EdD, DM



I was rummaging through old boxes in our storage room on a quiet morning, doing the kind of task one delays until the heart is finally ready to remember. Beneath piles of old documents, medals from youthful triumphs, and faded certificates, I found a small children’s book I had not touched since grade school. It was Noah’s Ark — its cover softened by age, its pages fragile, yet its illustrations still full of color and innocence. The image of Noah standing before the rising storm struck me deeply. As a child, I simply admired the animals in pairs. As an adult, a professor of governance and public safety, and someone who has witnessed the consequences of political decisions, I suddenly understood why that story remains timeless. Disasters were never just about the rain. They were about preparation. Noah survived not because he was lucky, but because he listened, he foresaw, he acted before the storm arrived. He built the ark when the world still laughed at the possibility of a flood. It dawned on me that the true tragedy is not the storm itself, but the refusal of leaders to prepare for it.

 

Holding that book, I could not avoid seeing Project NOAH as our modern counterpart to the biblical ark — not made of wood and nails, but of models, data, sensors, satellites, and hazard maps. Built by Filipino scientists with brilliance and compassion, Project NOAH was designed to give our nation foresight before destruction, information before panic, and understanding before loss. It was a scientific sanctuary that could transform uncertainty into preparedness, confusion into clarity, and helplessness into resilience. It did not promise to stop floods any more than Noah promised to stop the rain, but it promised survival. And survival, in disaster governance, is everything.

 

Project NOAH offered the country a rare gift: the ability to turn natural hazards into predictable events. Through hydrological models, real-time rainfall analytics, geospatial simulations, and barangay-level hazard mapping, it gave decision-makers a clear window into the future. It empowered LGUs and national agencies to anticipate where rivers would swell, which communities would flood, which roads would become impassable. It turned the unpredictable into something manageable, giving people the chance to live another day. Yet, the true power of Project NOAH extended beyond disaster science. It provided something even more threatening to the political status quo: accountability. Science, when public and transparent, is a mirror that cannot be fogged. It exposes discrepancies between what is claimed and what is real. It reveals inconsistencies in engineering plans, procurement documents, and flood-mitigation projects. It challenges decisions that defy physical laws. It resists manipulation. It demands honesty.

 

This is why the weakening of Project NOAH’s institutional foundation under the Duterte administration remains one of the most consequential turning points in our national disaster governance history. It is factually accurate to state that President Rodrigo Duterte did not directly shut down Project NOAH. There was no executive order dissolving it, no official pronouncement condemning it. But it is equally important to recognize what was not said and what was not done. When DOST announced that funding would end, there was no intervention from the highest office to preserve the project. No effort to sustain it. No sense of urgency to protect a program that had saved countless lives. When a vital national institution is left to die without resistance, the silence becomes its executioner. The ark was not dismantled; it was abandoned at the shore.

 

What adds to this sorrow is that even in the administration of President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., no substantial step has been taken to restore Project NOAH, institutionalize it, or reintegrate it into our national disaster management framework. Despite worsening climate patterns, despite repeated community flooding, despite the intensifying need for real-time hazard intelligence, and despite the enormous value NOAH brings to evidence-based governance, it remains outside the government’s core structure. It continues to operate only because the University of the Philippines embraced it and refused to let it vanish. It survives today not by governmental will, but by academic compassion. And that is both admirable and heartbreaking.

 

The heartbreak becomes more pronounced when we consider the present flood control scandal — a convergence of corruption, incompetence, and political betrayal. Billions of pesos were allocated to dredging rivers, constructing drainage systems, reinforcing embankments, and erecting flood-control structures. Yet so many communities remain submerged after only an hour of rain. Rivers allegedly dredged still hold the same volume they did before. Drainage systems supposedly improved fail almost instantly. Structures built with astounding budgets sit in locations that NOAH’s models would have flagged as low-priority or structurally pointless. In some cases, flood control projects were approved for areas where hazard maps clearly indicated that flooding was not a primary threat, raising questions about whether these projects were designed for public safety or political gain.

 

If Project NOAH had been fully institutionalized, mandated, and funded, these anomalies would have been harder to conceal. Hydrological models would have shown whether dredging was genuine or a fiction. Rainfall projections would have been cross-referenced with drainage capacity claims. Hazard maps would have exposed the absurdity of locating multimillion-peso projects in zones that never needed them. Satellite imagery, operating under NOAH’s framework, would have revealed discrepancies between contractual promises and actual physical outcomes. Science would have become a witness, and accountability would have been unavoidable.

 

The absence of NOAH in the official government apparatus created a vacuum where corruption could flourish unnoticed. Procurement documents overstated flood risks in areas where scientific data suggested otherwise. Engineers justified projects that defied hydrological logic. Contractors built without reference to hazard data. Oversight agencies lacked the scientific backbone to audit infrastructure claims. And the people — ordinary Filipinos living in flood-prone barangays — paid the ultimate price. It is wrenching to imagine how many of today’s scandals could have been prevented had Project NOAH been standing at the center of decision-making, demanding truth through data, challenging falsehoods through simulations, ensuring transparency through open-access maps. The scandal does not only reflect moral failure; it reflects a profound rejection of science.

 

Yet the tragedy does not end there. Project NOAH could have strengthened anti-corruption monitoring and also enhanced the nation’s fight against organized crime. Many coastal zones vulnerable to storm surges — carefully mapped by NOAH — are the same corridors exploited by smuggling syndicates. Integrating NOAH’s geospatial and environmental intelligence with Presidential Anti-Organized Crime Commission (PAOCC) operations could have revolutionized predictive patrolling and tightened maritime surveillance. The same visibility that prevents flood disasters could prevent economic sabotage. The same models used to warn residents of rising waters could guide security forces in anticipating smuggling routes shaped by tidal shifts, river flow, and terrain. And at the level of LGUs, this interdisciplinary approach could have been transformative: a mayor reading rainfall projections would also be reading risk maps for criminal activity, turning science into both shield and strategy.

 

But instead of embracing this powerful convergence of science, security, and governance, Project NOAH was allowed to drift into semi-obscurity. It floats now in the care of UP, respected by scholars but underutilized by the state. And as storms grow stronger, as corruption grows bolder, as criminal networks grow more sophisticated, the absence of a national commitment to NOAH becomes a wound that bleeds with every flooded street, every ruined livelihood, every scandal that steals money meant to keep families safe.

 

As I placed the old children’s book gently back on my desk, I could not shake the image of Noah standing before the rising storm, hammer in hand, building something not for glory but for survival. Noah built the ark before the rain came. We, on the other hand, dismantled our ark while the sky was already darkening. We had the tools. We had the science. We had the warnings. We had the chance to create a culture of preparedness. Yet we allowed politics, indifference, and corruption to drown our best efforts.

 

And so the question that lingers — the question that echoes from that fragile childhood book to the present reality of our nation — is painfully simple: when the next great storm approaches, will our leaders finally choose to build and protect the ark? Or will we once again wait for the floodwaters to rise before realizing that the tragedy was never the storm, but the silence and neglect of those who refused to prepare?

 _____

 *About the author:

Dr. Rodolfo “John” Ortiz Teope is a distinguished Filipino academicpublic intellectual, and advocate for civic education and public safety, whose work spans local academies and international security circles. With a career rooted in teaching, research, policy, and public engagement, he bridges theory and practice by making meaningful contributions to academic discourse, civic education, and public policy. Dr. Teope is widely respected for his critical scholarship in education, managementeconomicsdoctrine development, and public safety; his grassroots involvement in government and non-government organizations; his influential media presence promoting democratic values and civic consciousness; and his ethical leadership grounded in Filipino nationalism and public service. As a true public intellectual, he exemplifies how research, advocacy, governance, and education can work together in pursuit of the nation’s moral and civic mission.


Dr. Rodolfo John Ortiz Teope

Dr. Rodolfo John Ortiz Teope

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