*Dr. Rodolfo John Ortiz Teope, PhD, EdD, DM
Recently, I published a book on Amazon Kindle entitled UNDERSTANDING DUTERTEISM: Why Millions Continue to Believe in Rodrigo Duterte. The book was never intended to tell Filipinos whether they should love or hate Rodrigo Duterte. Its purpose
was to understand something far more complicated. Why, despite controversies, criticisms, investigations, and political attacks, do millions of Filipinos continue to believe in him and in the political phenomenon that grew around his name?
Now, perhaps sooner than expected, Philippine politics is presenting another real life test of that question. This time, however, it is no longer Rodrigo Duterte standing at the center. It is his daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte. And surrounding her is a number that has repeatedly been invoked throughout the impeachment controversy: 32 million.
Mahigit 32 million Filipinos voted for Sara Duterte in 2022. During the impeachment controversy, that number repeatedly became part of the political argument surrounding her defense. Paano basta basta maisasantabi ang isang Vice President na binigyan ng mandato ng mahigit 32 milyong Pilipino? It is a powerful argument. But now comes the more difficult question.
Ngayong nahaharap si Sara Duterte sa warrant of arrest, perhaps Philippine politics is approaching the moment when the real political meaning of those 32 million votes will finally be tested. Hindi na ito election. Hindi na ito survey. Hindi na ito Facebook likes, shares, and comments. Hindi na ito TikTok views, YouTube livestreams, hashtags, or viral videos. This time, the question is about something much harder to measure: political commitment.
Hindi na tanong kung totoong 32 million ang bumoto kay Sara Duterte. Totoo iyon. Historical fact iyon. Ang tanong ngayon ay, ano ba talaga ang kinakatawan ng 32 million na iyon, and how much of that political force still exists today?
And this is not merely a question for DDS or Duterte supporters. Tanong din ito para sa mga sumusuporta sa impeachment. Para sa mga naniniwalang kailangang managot si Sara. Para sa administration and its allies. At para rin sa milyon milyong Pilipino na wala sa magkabilang kampo. Because what happens next could determine whether this warrant becomes the beginning of Sara Duterte’s political decline, or one of the greatest political gifts her opponents could unintentionally give her.
32 Million Voters Are Not Automatically 32 Million Die Hards
Ito muna ang kailangang linawin. Hindi porke’t 32 million ang bumoto kay Sara Duterte noong 2022 ay may 32 million siyang die hard followers ngayon. The 2022 election happened under completely different political circumstances. There was UniTeam. Magkasama sina Ferdinand Marcos Jr. at Sara Duterte. May solid Duterte voters. May Marcos loyalists. May mga bumoto sa tandem because they wanted political continuity and stability. May regional voters. May strategic voters. At mayroon ding mga Pilipinong hindi naman DDS pero naniwalang si Sara ang pinakamainam na kandidato para Vice President.
A ballot records a political choice at a particular moment. It does not automatically record permanent loyalty. At napakahaba ng apat na taon sa politika. The Marcos and Duterte alliance fractured. Dating magkakampi, naging magkatunggali. The political partnership collapsed. Then came investigations. Then impeachment. And now, criminal proceedings.
Kaya kailangang paghiwalayin ang tatlong bagay. 32 million voters are not necessarily 32 million loyalists, and 32 million loyalists are not necessarily 32 million mobilizable supporters. At maaaring ngayon natin makita kung gaano kalaki ang pagitan ng tatlong iyon.
The Warrant Cannot Erase the 32 Million, But the 32 Million Cannot Erase the Warrant
Dito kailangang maging patas ang pagsusuri. Sara Duterte’s electoral mandate matters. Those 32 million votes were real. Hindi maaaring insultuhin, maliitin, o basta sabihing walang saysay ang political judgment ng milyon milyong Pilipinong bumoto sa kanya.
But democracy also requires another principle. Thirty two million votes do not constitute immunity from the law. Hindi porke’t napakaraming bumoto sa isang opisyal ay hindi na siya maaaring imbestigahan, kasuhan, o papanagutin kapag may legal basis. An election is a mandate. It is not immunity.
Pero mayroon ding kailangang tandaan ang kabilang panig. A warrant of arrest is not a conviction. Hindi ibig sabihin na dahil may warrant ay guilty na. Sara Duterte remains entitled to due process and the presumption of innocence. Kaya ang mga sumusuporta sa impeachment or prosecution should also be careful not to turn an arrest warrant into a victory celebration over a case that has not yet been finally decided.
Ito ang mahirap sa tunay na demokrasya. Duterte supporters must accept that popularity is not immunity. At ang mga kalaban naman ni Duterte must equally accept that accusation is not guilt. Hindi dapat nagbabago ang prinsipyo depende sa apelyido ng akusado.
Prosecution or Persecution?
Perhaps this is where the political danger really begins. There is a profound difference between prosecution and persecution. Ang prosecution ay usapin ng batas, ebidensiya, at judicial process. Ang persecution naman ay political perception that government power is being used not simply to enforce the law, but to destroy an opponent.
Whether political persecution is actually happening requires evidence. But politics has an uncomfortable reality. Perception itself can become politically powerful.
Sa paningin ng mga kritiko ni Sara, maaaring simple lamang ang sequence. May allegations. Nagkaroon ng investigation. May impeachment. May criminal case. At ngayon, may warrant. These can be viewed as separate institutional processes.
But imagine how the same sequence may appear to a committed Duterte supporter. Inimbestigahan siya. Inimpeach siya. Kinasuhan siya. Ngayon, aarestuhin siya. Suddenly, several separate political and legal proceedings can merge into one emotional narrative: “Pinagtutulungan si Sara.”
Whether that conclusion is legally justified is one question. Whether millions of Filipinos begin believing it is another. And that is where the political danger begins. Because prosecution can weaken a politician. But perceived persecution can create a political martyr.
The Most Dangerous Sentence for Sara’s Opponents
Ironically, the most politically important Filipino today may not be the die hard DDS. A DDS becoming angrier is still DDS. A loyalist becoming more loyal does not fundamentally change electoral mathematics.
But imagine a Filipino who did not vote for Sara Duterte beginning to say, “Hindi ako DDS, pero parang sobra na.”
That sentence could become politically explosive.
Political movements expand not simply when their existing supporters become louder, but when outsiders begin sympathizing with them. Imagine former UniTeam voters returning to Sara. Imagine independents who dislike Duterte politics but begin becoming uncomfortable with what they perceive as excessive treatment. Imagine people who originally supported impeachment starting to ask, “Accountability pa ba ito, o political vengeance na?”
Those Filipinos could become more politically valuable to Sara Duterte than another million supportive comments on Facebook. This is therefore the danger confronting her political opponents. The more she appears persecuted rather than prosecuted, the greater the possibility that sympathy expands beyond DDS. And when sympathy crosses political boundaries, a partisan controversy can become a national political issue.
Could Detention Become Sara Duterte’s Political Capital?
This is where the issue of bail becomes politically fascinating. Legally, whether Sara Duterte should post bail is a matter for her and her lawyers. Legal decisions should be based on her rights, liberty, and best interests, not upon creating political theater.
But political analysis cannot ignore the symbolism of detention. Politics is visual. A politician speaking behind a podium is ordinary. A politician surrounded by supporters is familiar. But an opposition figure behind bars can become something completely different.
An image becomes a symbol. A symbol becomes a narrative. A narrative becomes emotion. And emotion can become a movement.
Imagine the possible message: “Hindi nila kayang talunin si Sara politically, kaya kinulong nila.”
Again, whether that statement is legally or factually correct is separate from whether millions eventually believe it. And this is the paradox confronting Sara Duterte’s opponents. The warrant could become her political burden. Or it could become her political capital.
What was intended as part of a legal process could, depending on how events unfold and how the public interprets them, become an extraordinarily powerful political narrative heading toward 2028.
Will the 32 Million Go to the Streets?
Ito marahil ang pinakamatinding tanong. Kung talagang napakalalim ng political loyalty kay Sara Duterte, maaari bang magtrigger ang kanyang arrest ng massive demonstrations? Possible. But expecting literally 32 million Filipinos to march is unrealistic.
Hindi kailangang lumabas ang buong 32 million para mapatunayan na may political force. Even a small fraction of that number, if sustained, geographically widespread, and genuinely spontaneous, could create a major national political event.
Ang mas mahalagang tingnan ay hindi lamang headcount. Kung Davao lamang ang magkaroon ng malalaking mobilization, that demonstrates regional strength. But what happens if substantial demonstrations appear in Metro Manila, different parts of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao? That sends a completely different political signal.
One afternoon demonstrates anger. Several days demonstrate momentum. Weeks of sustained peaceful mobilization could demonstrate organization and commitment. At mahalaga ring tingnan kung sino ang sumasama. Kung established Duterte organizations lamang, one thing iyon. But when ordinary families, workers, professionals, students, businesspeople, religious organizations, civil society personalities, and previously neutral Filipinos begin participating, something much bigger may be happening.
Most importantly, are Filipinos who were never DDS beginning to join? Because that is when partisan mobilization begins transforming into something larger.
Could This Become Another People Power?
The phrase People Power should never be used casually. Hindi lahat ng malaking rally ay People Power. Hindi lahat ng galit sa gobyerno ay revolution. And no responsible political analysis should romanticize violence, disorder, or unconstitutional seizure of power.
But Philippine history teaches something important. People Power is not simply about the number of bodies standing on one avenue. It is about political gravity.
It happens when political leaders begin reconsidering alliances. When local officials begin repositioning. When civil society becomes active. When religious, professional, and business organizations begin taking positions. When institutions begin carefully watching shifts in public legitimacy. And when previously silent Filipinos begin saying, “Sasama na rin ako.”
At that point, the question is no longer simply, “Ilang tao ang nasa rally?” The question becomes, “Is political legitimacy beginning to shift?”
That is the real threshold to watch.
But What If Nobody Comes?
Ito naman ang uncomfortable question para sa Duterte camp. What if social media explodes? Millions of views. Hundreds of thousands of comments. Trending hashtags. Viral TikTok videos. Facebook flooded with support. YouTube livestreams everywhere. Pero paglabas sa totoong mundo, tahimik ang kalsada?
That would not mean the 32 million were fake. Hindi fake ang election result. It would not mean Duterteism is dead. And it would certainly not mean Sara Duterte has ceased being politically formidable.
But it would raise an important analytical question. Is Duterteism more digitally intense than physically mobilizable?
Social media dominance is not necessarily organizational strength. There is another possibility as well. Millions may still support Sara but simply refuse to march because they believe the issue should be settled through courts and, eventually, through elections.
Perhaps their message would not be, “Pupunta kami sa EDSA.” Perhaps it would be, “Magkikita tayo sa balota.”
And politically, that could be just as significant.
Therefore, quiet streets would not automatically disprove Duterteism. But they would challenge the assumption that the 32 million votes of 2022 remain one solid, permanent, and mobilizable political bloc in 2026.
Those Supporting Impeachment Are Being Tested Too
Hindi lamang Duterte supporters ang sinusubukan ngayon. Those supporting impeachment and accountability face their own democratic examination.
Can they demand accountability without demanding humiliation? Can they support prosecution without celebrating imprisonment? Can they oppose Sara Duterte without insulting the Filipinos who voted for her? Can they criticize Duterteism without treating every DDS as stupid, ignorant, or fanatic?
Because contempt has a strange effect in politics. It can become fertilizer for the very movement you are trying to destroy.
Kapag sinabi sa milyon milyong Duterte voters na bobo sila, walang pinag aralan, bayaran, troll, o fanatic, hindi ibig sabihin na iiwan nila ang Duterte. They may hold tighter. Political identity often becomes stronger when people feel their entire group is being attacked.
That was part of the emotional power of Rodrigo Duterte. Many supporters believed he spoke for Filipinos whom traditional political institutions and elites had stopped hearing. Humiliate those voters again and the same resentment may return.
But Duterte supporters have an equal responsibility. Hindi lahat ng sumusuporta sa impeachment ay kaaway ng bayan. Hindi lahat ng humihingi ng accountability ay bahagi ng administration machinery. Hindi lahat ng bumabatikos kay Sara ay anti Duterte fanatic.
A Filipino can sincerely believe Sara Duterte should answer serious allegations while simultaneously believing that she deserves due process and constitutional protection. Those positions are not contradictory.
That is democracy.
Two Possible Futures
The warrant now opens two dramatically different political roads. On the first road, Sara Duterte faces the judicial process. Mobilization remains limited. Public sympathy does not substantially expand. The 32 million coalition proves difficult to reconstruct outside the extraordinary political circumstances of 2022. That could expose the limits of Duterteism after Rodrigo Duterte.
But there is another road. Demonstrations grow. Sympathy spreads. Former UniTeam voters return. Neutral Filipinos begin asking uncomfortable questions. People who once supported impeachment begin wondering whether accountability has become excessive. Gradually, Sara Duterte stops appearing merely as a politician facing allegations. She begins appearing, at least to a growing segment of society, as a symbol of political persecution.
Then the political equation changes.
The warrant expected to weaken her could strengthen her. The legal pressure intended to hold her accountable could unintentionally consolidate her identity as the principal opposition figure. And what appears today to be one of Sara Duterte’s greatest political crises could eventually become part of her most powerful political narrative for 2028.
That would be the ultimate paradox: her opponents trying to make Sara Duterte smaller, and unintentionally making her bigger.
The Real Test of Duterteism
This brings the discussion back to Understanding Duterteism.
The phenomenon was never simply about Rodrigo Duterte winning an election. The deeper question has always been why millions remained emotionally and politically connected to him even after the campaign ended, even after controversies accumulated, and even after he left Malacañang.
Now Sara Duterte presents the next phase of that question.
The 2022 election measured votes. Surveys measure sentiment. Facebook measures engagement. TikTok measures attention. But political crisis measures commitment.
Ngayon maaaring makita kung ang Duterteism after Rodrigo Duterte is primarily nostalgia, an electoral brand, a powerful online community, a regional political force, or a durable national political movement capable of surviving political adversity.
And perhaps an even more important question will finally begin receiving an answer: Did Sara Duterte inherit Rodrigo Duterte’s voters, or did she inherit Duterteism itself?
Because those are two very different inheritances.
Whatever happens, neither side should wish for chaos merely to prove its political strength. Duterte supporters do not need violence to demonstrate loyalty. Impeachment supporters do not need humiliation to demonstrate accountability. Government does not need excessive force to demonstrate authority. And political critics do not need hatred to demonstrate opposition.
Thirty two million votes cannot place Sara Duterte above the law. But an arrest warrant cannot place Sara Duterte outside the protection of the law either.
Those who voted for her have every right to defend her peacefully. Those who support impeachment have every right to demand accountability. Those who support neither have every right to question both. And every one of them must remain protected by the same Constitution.
Perhaps iyon talaga ang pinakamalaking test na hinaharap ng Pilipinas ngayon. Not whether Sara Duterte can bring millions into the streets. Not whether her opponents can finally defeat Duterteism. Not even whether the famous 32 million remains politically intact.
The greater question is whether Philippine democracy can prosecute without persecuting, demand accountability without vengeance, support without worshipping, oppose without dehumanizing, and disagree without destroying itself.
Because after this political crisis, politicians will come and go. Administrations will end. Alliances will collapse. Today’s political enemies may become tomorrow’s political allies. But ordinary Filipinos will remain.
The Duterte supporter and the Duterte critic will still work beside each other. The Filipino supporting impeachment and the Filipino opposing it will still share the same streets, communities, workplaces, and country.
Thirty two million may have voted for Sara Duterte.
Millions of others did not.
But there is one number greater than either political camp.
The Filipino nation.
And whatever happens to Sara Duterte, whatever happens to the impeachment, whatever happens to the warrant, and whatever happens to Duterteism, that is the one political constituency the Philippines cannot afford to lose.
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